Rainfall is expected across parts of 32 Kenyan counties between Tuesday, September 29 and Monday, October 5, as the country enters the October-December short-rains season.
The Kenya Meteorological Department forecast places parts of the Coast, Northeastern, Eastern, Central, Nairobi, Western and Rift Valley regions among areas likely to receive rainfall during the seven-day period.
The counties listed in the forecast are Lamu, Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Embu, Garissa, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kisumu, Kitui, Laikipia, Machakos, Makueni, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bomet, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira and Wajir.
El Niño link emerges as October rains begin
The forecast comes as Kenya moves into the October-November-December (OND) period, commonly known as the short-rains season.
El Niño is one of the major climate drivers that can influence rainfall patterns in Kenya. KMD has previously noted that positive ENSO conditions are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in parts of the country.
However, the seven-day forecast should not be interpreted on its own as confirmation that El Niño is causing the expected rainfall. Short-term rainfall is influenced by several atmospheric and oceanic factors, and KMD’s seasonal outlooks take multiple climate drivers into account.
Rain expected across coast, central and western Kenya
The forecast cuts across several major agricultural and urban areas, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri and Nyandarua in central Kenya.
Parts of western Kenya, including Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu, Kisii and Nyamira, are also listed among areas expecting rainfall.
Coastal counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale are similarly included, alongside northeastern counties such as Garissa, Mandera and Wajir.
KMD describes its seven-day forecasts as important for planning in agriculture, disaster management, transport and other sectors.
The forecast also comes ahead of KMD’s broader OND 2026 seasonal outlook, which covers October through December and provides a longer-term assessment of expected rainfall patterns.
Residents, farmers and motorists in the affected areas can therefore use the seven-day forecast alongside subsequent KMD updates as rainfall conditions develop.
